Bookmaker and Sydney racing identity Robbie Waterhouse is struggling to attract any bets on the Voice despite now offering extraordinarily long $20 odds.
Should Australia vote Yes – and prove the opinion polls wrong – someone betting $1 would get back $21.
Mr Waterhouse, who takes bets at Warwick Farm Racecourse in south-west Sydney, said it was extraordinary punters weren’t interested in putting money on the Voice to Parliament referendum succeeding.
‘Yes is on the nose as far as punters are concerned,’ he told Daily Mail Australia.
‘I can tell you, at Warwick Farm, I was $20 Yes and I couldn’t find a customer – if that doesn’t tell you something, I don’t know what does.
‘The people in the Yes case most certainly aren’t prepared to back their opinion – they might feel very strong that Yes should get up but they won’t put $1 on themselves.’
Odds of $20 imply the Yes case would only have a five per cent chance of succeeding.
‘They won’t take $20 – it’s quite an extraordinary thing,’ Mr Waterhouse said.
Bookmaker and Sydney racing identity Robbie Waterhouse is struggling to attract bets on the Voice despite now offering extraordinarily long $20 odds (he is pictured far right, from left to right, with his bookmaker son Tom Waterhouse, daughter-in-law Hoda Waterhouse and horse trainer wife Gai Waterhouse)
Mainstream wagering companies have also shied away from taking bets on the Indigenous Voice proposal.
But BlueBet, one of the very few taking money, was on Thursday offering $6 odds on the Yes side winning, and only $1.09 should the No case prevail, as widely expected.
This means someone betting $1 would get back $7 – or the $1 a gambler put in plus a $6 return if Australia voted Yes.
Mr Waterhouse said BlueBet would be struggling, considering he was offering $20 odds.
‘How BlueBet will find a customer at $6 is beyond me,’ he said.
The BlueBet odds would rate the prospect of the Voice succeeding as a 17 per cent chance, making defeat an 83 per cent probability.
Mr Waterhouse, whose father and grandfather were bookmakers, noted Donald Trump’s odds never rose above $5 – weeks out from the November 2016 American presidential election when he was considered highly unlikely to beat Democrat Hillary Clinton.
By election day, Mr Trump’s odds had shortened to $3.50 – implying a 29 per cent chance of victory, compared with $5 weeks early suggesting a 20 per cent chance of winning.
‘I remember it perfectly. He was never longer than about $5 – a couple of people were happy to back Donald Trump,’ he said.
‘I know someone who had $2million on Donald Trump two or three weeks before the election.
‘There were plenty of Trump backers, there are no Yes backers.’
The racing identity said the Yes campaign stumbled badly when television journalist Ray Martin described the No campaign as ‘dinosaurs and d***heads’ – likening it to Mrs Clinton’s ‘basket of deplorables’ comment to describe Mr Trump’s Republican supporters.
‘It was a Hillary Clinton moment,’ Mr Waterhouse said.
‘To say to vote No is an irrational thing to do if you don’t know is absurd.
Odds of $20 imply the Yes case would only have a five per cent chance of succeeding. BlueBet is offering odds of $6 – suggesting a 17 per cent chance of victory (pictured is Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at Uluru with Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles)
‘If someone says, sign this cheque, you don’t know how much is written on the cheque, you wouldn’t dream of signing it, would you?’
Mr Waterhouse also predicted no state would end up supporting the Voice, which would be a repeat of the 1999 referendum when only the Australian Capital Territory voted Yes.
‘I don’t think they’ll get one state,’ he said.
The Voice would need to win not just the popular vote but also a majority of votes in four out of six states – with the territories excluded from this count.
Tasmania was the only state where the Yes case was leading in Resolve and Roy Morgan polls taken in September and October.
Only eight out of 44 referendum questions have succeeded since 1906, with the last one carried in 1977.
Donald Trump’s odds never rose above $5 – weeks out from the November 2016 American presidential election when he was considered highly unlikely to beat Democrat Hillary Clinton (they are pictured in October 2016 during a town hall debate in Missouri)
The republic referendum in 1999 only received 45 per cent support and UK polling firm Focaldata is predicting the Voice on Saturday would get just 39 per cent support, based on a survey of 4,500 Australians.
A Labor government hasn’t succeeded in amending the Constitution since 1946, and that was to give the Commonwealth the power to provide social security instead of the states.
In 2016, Mr Trump narrowly triumphed in the electoral college, but not the popular vote, by winning rustbelt states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that didn’t normally vote Republican, after vowing to undo free trade deals.
Source: | This article originally belongs to Dailymail.co.uk
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